Advanced Options Calculator

Analyze trades with powerful options calculation tools.

Market's Expected Move

Calculate the price swing the market is pricing in, based on at-the-money (ATM) straddle costs.

What this calculator helps you do

This tool gives you a clear estimate of the price range the market anticipates for a stock by a specific expiration date. It works by using the combined premium of the at-the-money call and put options.

Ahead of an earnings announcement, you might enter a stock price of €120, an ATM call premium of €2.60, and an ATM put premium of €2.40. The calculator will show that the market is pricing in an expected move of €5.00 (€2.60 + €2.40), implying a price range of €115.00 to €125.00 by expiration.

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How it’s calculated

Market's Expected Move

The expected move is calculated by adding the price of an at-the-money (ATM) call option to the price of an ATM put option. The total cost of this straddle reflects the market's consensus on the stock's potential move by expiration. The expected price range comes from adding and subtracting this move from the current stock price.

$$\text{Expected Move} = \text{ATM Call Price} + \text{ATM Put Price}$$ $$\text{Expected Range} = \text{Current Stock Price} \pm \text{Expected Move}$$

This works because an ATM straddle only becomes profitable if the stock moves more than the total premium paid, making its cost a direct proxy for the market's breakeven expectation.